Mehmet Balcilar
University of New Haven

I’m an applied macroeconomist with a passion for harnessing the power of data analytics. My research journey is rooted in the intriguing intersection of applied macroeconomics, financial economics, and applied econometrics. Through years of dedicated exploration, I’ve cultivated a portfolio of published works spanning the domains of forecasting, urban and real estate economics, energy economics, risk management, central banking, and monetary economics. See the One Page Short CV and Full CV for further information. This web page is infrequently updated. For the research papers, IDEAS, EconPapers, and Google Scholar pages are more frequently updated and may even have a more comprehensive coverage. There are also ResearchGate, LinkedIn, SSRN, and ACADEMIA pages.

The teaching pages are available here. See also my github page.

You may find recent papers and project links below.


  • Macroeconomics
  • Financial Economics
  • Asset and commodity markets
  • Time Series Analysis
  • Nonparametric Statistics
  • Risk Analysis


Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan, US
1991 - 1996
Ph.D. Economics
Cleveland State University, Cleveland, Ohio, US
1990 - 1991
MA Applied Economics
Cukurova University, Adana, Turkey
1987 - 1990
MA Economics
Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey
1982 - 1986
BA Tourism Management

Recent Publications

See my IDEAS or EconPapers for the complete list.
The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress, 2022, North American Journal of Economics and Finance
Mehmet Balcilar , Zeynel Ozdemir , Huseyin Ozdemir , Gurcan Aygun , Mark Wohar
U.S. monetary policy and the predictability of global economic synchronization patterns, 2022, Journal of Economics and Finance
Mehmet Balcilar , Riza Demirer
On the connectedness of commodity markets: A critical and selective survey of empirical studies and bibliometric analysis, 2022, Journal of Economic Surveys
Mehmet Balcilar , Ojonugwa Usman , Busra Agan
Oil-price uncertainty and international stock returns: Dissecting quantile-based predictability and spillover effects using more than a century of data, 2022, Energies
Mehmet Balcilar , Rangan Gupta , Christian Pierdzioch
Rare disaster risks and gold over 700 years: Evidence from nonparametric quantile regressions, 2022, Resources Policy
Mehmet Balcilar , Rangan Gupta , Jacobus Nel
Financial connectedness and risk transmission among MENA countries: Evidence from connectedness network and clustering analysis, 2022, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money
Mehmet Balcilar , Ahmed Elsayed , ShawkatHammoudeh
Uncertainty and Forecastability of Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Machine Learning, 2022, Journal of Forecasting
Mehmet Balcilar , David Gabauer , Rangan Gupta , Christian Pierdzioch
El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements, 2021, Sustainability
Mehmet Balcilar , Elie Bouri , Rangan Gupta , Christian Pierdzioch
Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach, 2021, Resources Policy
Mehmet Balcilar , David Gabauer , Zaghum Umar
Flexible Time-Varying Betas in a Novel Mixture Innovation Factor Model with Latent Threshold, 2021, Sustainability
Mehmet Balcilar , Riza Demirer , Festus V. Bekun


Computer codes developed by Mehmet Balcilar.
mFilter: Miscellaneous Time Series Filters--R packega developed & maintained by Mehmet Balcilar


See my CV for the complete list.
Mitigation Strategies for Transport Service Providers during and after COVID-19